Broadcast: May 21, 2003

¹⁾Minimal Threat of ²⁾Deflation in US

U.S. Central Bank Chairman Alan Greenspan Wednesday offered a mixed but ultimately ³⁾positive assessment of the U.S. economy, suggesting that growth is likely to pick up in the months ahead. Mr. Greenspan appeared before the congressional Joint Economic Committee.

Mr. Greenspan says businesses remain reluctant to invest or hire new workers. However, he said the pace of growth may be quickening as the positive effects of a fall in energy prices and the end to the Iraq war take hold. The central bank, he says, needs further economic data to fully assess future prospects.

"The economy continues to be ⁴⁾buffeted by strong ⁵⁾cross-currents," he said. "Recent ⁶⁾readings on production and employment have been on the weak side. But the economic fundamentals, including the improved conditions in financial markets and the continued growth in productivity, ⁷⁾augur well for the future."

The U.S. economy has been growing at under a two percent annual rate. Expectations are that growth will accelerate to a three to four percent pace in the second half of the year.

Mr. Greenspan acknowledged that there is a threat of a general decline in the price level known as deflation, a phenomenon that has kept Japan in or near ⁸⁾recession for a decade. However, Mr. Greenspan says the threat of deflation in United States is still minimal. "To recognize this not as an ⁹⁾imminent dangerous threat to the United States, but a threat - that even though minor - is sufficiently large that it does require very close ¹⁰⁾scrutiny and maybe, maybe action on the part of the central bank," he said.

Mr. Greenspan said deflation is essentially caused by weak consumer demand. Despite 40-year low interest rates, he said the central bank still has the policy tools to further ¹¹⁾stimulate consumer demand.

The 77-year-old Mr. Greenspan ¹²⁾declined to comment on the recent sharp declines in the value of the dollar, saying that is the job of Treasury Secretary John Snow.

Barry Wood VOA news, Washington.

1) minimal [5minimEl] adj.最小的，最小限度的

2) deflation [di5fleiF(E)n] n.通货紧缩

3) positive [5pCzEtiv] adj.积极的

4) buffet [5bQfit] v.打击，搏斗

5) cross-current [5krRs kQrEnt] n.逆流，相反的趋势

6) reading [5ri:diN] n.读数，示数

7) augur [5C:^E] v.占卜，预言

8) recession [ri5seFEn] n.工商业之衰退，不景气

9) imminent [5iminEnt] adj.即将来临的，逼近的

10) scrutiny [5skru:tini] n.详细审查

11) stimulate [5stimjuleit] vt.刺激，激励

12) decline [di5klain] v.谢绝，婉谢

播报时间：2003年5月21日

美国面临的通货紧缩威胁微乎其微

星期三，美国中央银行主席艾伦格林斯潘发布了一份综合了各种观点、但基调积极的美国经济评估报告，该报告暗示，经济增长在今后几个月中可能加速。格林斯潘先生出席了国会的联席经济委员会会议。

格林斯潘先生说，企业仍旧不愿进行投资或者招募新人。但他说，当能源价格回落和伊拉克战争结束后的积极影响得到稳定以后，发展速度可能加快。他说，中央银行还需要进一步的经济数据来对未来的走势进行完全评估。

“经济仍旧在与强势的不利因素进行抗争。”他说，“最近的生产和就业指数一直走低。但是，包括改善的金融市场状况和生产力的持续增长在内的经济基础情况却预示着不错的前景。”

美国经济一直保持着低于2%的年增长率。预计，增长率在下半年会增至3%到4%的水平。

格林斯潘先生承认，在被称为通货紧缩的价格水平上存在着一个普遍下滑的威胁，这一现象已经使日本10年来均处于或濒临衰退状态。但格林斯潘先生说，美国面临的通货紧缩威胁仍然是微乎其微的。“要认定这不是美国即将面临的一个危险的恶兆，而只是一个威胁（即使是很小的），就十分需要进行非常细致的观察，也许，也许还需要中央银行做出一定的工作。”他说。

格林斯潘先生说，通货紧缩实质上是由疲软的消费者需求所致。他说，尽管保持了40年低利率水平，中央银行还是要用这类政策性手段来进一步刺激消费者需求的。

已有77岁的格林斯潘先生谢绝了对目前的美元急剧贬值现象发表评论，他说，那是财政部长约翰斯诺的份内之事。

这是“美国之音”新闻部的巴里伍德从华盛顿发出的报道。